Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State:
Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State found themselves in a rather odd situation in Week 13. The Hilltoppers had everything to lose and the Gamecocks had nothing to gain, as Western Kentucky needed a win for a spot in this game and Jacksonville State was in it and at home regardless. WKU won thanks to a 50-yard field goal with three seconds left, but it was definitely a struggle.Now we get the rematch with a much more engaged and energized Jacksonville State bunch laying four points at home.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-4, 58)
Friday, 7 p.m. ETJacksonville State opened a road favorite last week before the betting market flipped the number in favor of Western Kentucky given the stakes. That game ended 19-17 with a closing total of 62 or 62.5. As you can see, an adjustment has clearly been made for the expectation of points on Friday night. It will be chilly in Jacksonville, Alabama for this one, but wind and precipitation are not factors in the early forecast.
It is a misnomer to say that WKU settled for field goals last week, as only one was a chip shot. Lucas Carneiro hit two from 50, one from 35, and one from 21 in the victory. The Hilltoppers did outgain Jacksonville State by 98 yards, but that’s because they ran 84 offensive plays to 61 for the visitors. The Gamecocks were just 2-of-13 on third down, but they had 17 pass attempts compared to 48 for the Hilltoppers.
What impressed me the most was that Jacksonville State probably didn’t want to show too much and didn’t really need to win the game, but still racked up 229 rushing yards on 43 carries for a 5.3 average. Dual-threat QB Tyler Huff, who threw for over 2,000 yards and ran for nearly 1,200 during the regular season, was lifted from last week’s game due to an ankle injury. Head coach Rich Rodriguez shared no details after the game on his possible status for this week.
Backup QB Logan Smothers has played four years of college football, but he’s nowhere near as dynamic as Huff, who is second in the nation in QB rushing yards behind Army’s Bryson Daily and one of two QB with 2,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards (New Mexico State’s Devin Dampier).
Even with Huff hurt, this line opened -2 at Circa and was quickly bet up to -4, where it currently sits. With this preview posted on Monday, it is hard to jump in on either side given Huff’s enormous importance for the Gamecocks. But, a compromised Huff in a game of this magnitude pushes me towards the Under, given that his legs aer a huge part of the equation. If Smothers starts, he’s nowhere near the runner or passer.
Pick: Under 58
